April 2025 Jobs Report: Key Insights on Employment Rates Amid Ongoing Economic Uncertainty
In April, the growth of jobs in the United States is expected to show a slowdown amid rising economic uncertainty. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is anticipated to release its payrolls data on Friday, forecasting an increase of about 133,000 jobs. This number would mark a decline from the 228,000 jobs added in March but remains in line with historical monthly averages. Additionally, the unemployment rate is predicted to stay steady at 4.2%.
Leading up to the report, there was considerable discussion regarding how much the consequences of President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs speech on April 2 would be reflected in the new data. While the tariffs announcement created significant uncertainty, resulting in market declines, the impact—such as decreased port shipments and stalled hiring—has only started to surface recently. Matthew Weller from Forex.com suggested that while there has been disruption to global trade due to the paused tariffs, the economic effects have not significantly impacted the U.S. yet. Beyond tariffs, Trump’s other policies appear to dampen job growth.
Over the past year, three sectors—government, health care and social assistance, and leisure and hospitality—have contributed to about 80% of overall job growth. However, the first two sectors could face challenges from funding cuts related to Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency project, while the leisure sector may see a reduced labor force due to his immigration policies. April is also traditionally a slower month for hiring, particularly in service industries. Despite this, analysts from Bank of America expect a stronger jobs report, driven by a temporary increase in employment in trade and transportation sectors prompted by a spike in consumer goods orders.
The economy is navigating diverse challenges, with shipping data indicating distress even as stock markets have rebounded. While some companies are reducing their financial forecasts, major tech firms are thriving. Furthermore, plans for job creation and expansion, such as Kimberly-Clark’s $2 billion investment, continue to emerge, though it’s unclear whether these initiatives are new or already in motion. Nonetheless, the threat of tariffs looms large over many businesses.
A negative GDP report for the first quarter and low consumer sentiment paint a concerning picture. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has urged the administration to implement a “tariff exclusion process” aimed at protecting particularly vulnerable small businesses from the adverse effects of the tariffs, reflecting growing fears of a potential recession.