Trump’s Potential Bombing of Iran’s Fordo Nuclear Site: Why It Won’t Be Another Chernobyl

If President Donald Trump chooses to deploy the United States’ largest conventional bomb against Iran’s fortified Fordo nuclear enrichment facility, the resultant explosion could result in casualties among personnel at the site. However, experts assert that such an assault would not lead to a nuclear explosion, nor would it cause a widespread radiological or chemical spill. Former nuclear officials emphasize that the dangers associated with uranium and its byproducts primarily involve direct exposure, rather than contamination on a larger scale. Fordo, situated south of Tehran, is designed to enrich uranium, potentially for nuclear energy production or weapons.

Despite the risks of chemical exposure from uranium, analysts contend that these substances will not cause significant contamination unless nuclear reactors or warheads are present. According to Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former British military officer in charge of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear defense, anyone caught in an explosion would be in grave danger primarily due to the bomb’s immense force rather than any nuclear risk. The bomb in question, known as the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), is unrivaled in its capability to penetrate deep targets. De Bretton-Gordon clarifies that the complexities of nuclear fission mean that simply damaging uranium would not lead to a nuclear detonation.

Others, like Mark Nelson of Radiant Energy Group, indicate that the radioactive materials at Fordo are weakly radioactive, meaning a larger catastrophe similar to a nuclear reactor incident is unlikely. As scrutiny intensifies over Fordo’s activities—where uranium is enriched to levels significantly higher than needed for energy—attention to the facility has increased amid military tensions. The International Atomic Energy Agency has shown concern, but tangible threats of a nuclear bomb are still unverified. Should military action occur, experts suggest that while the MOP might effectively seal Fordo under debris, the risks of widespread contamination remain limited compared to the immediate and profound threat posed by the bomb itself.