Trump and U.S. Intelligence Clash on Assessment of Iran’s Nuclear Advancements

The assessment of Iran’s nuclear program by U.S. intelligence officials has remained consistent since March. At that time, the director of national intelligence informed lawmakers that while Iran possesses substantial quantities of enriched uranium, it has not decided to accelerate its efforts to develop a nuclear weapon.

This perspective significantly contrasts comments made by President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who have suggested that Iran is hastening toward nuclear armament. President Trump recently claimed that Iran was merely “a few weeks” away from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu asserted in a recent interview that Iran is pursuing a covert initiative to develop a bomb in a matter of months. He emphasized that the intelligence shared with the U.S. indicated Iran was rapidly advancing toward weaponizing uranium.

This interpretation arises from U.S. intelligence that often relies on information provided by Israeli services, prompting questions on whether Netanyahu’s claims stem from differing conclusions drawn from the same intelligence data. Senator Mark Warner, the vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, expressed confusion regarding Trump’s statements, citing a contrasting picture presented by U.S. intelligence officials.

Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, reiterated in March that Iran had not yet decided to weaponize its nuclear capabilities, a position that has not shifted since her testimony. Warner called for clarity from the administration regarding any new intelligence concerning Iran’s nuclear activities.

For Iran to successfully construct a nuclear arsenal, it would need to enrich uranium to 90% purity. Currently, it has roughly 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, which could enable the production of multiple nuclear weapons in a matter of weeks.

However, creating a functional nuclear weapon involves further steps, including constructing and testing a deliverable device. Experts have indicated that while Iran is not close to having a nuclear weapon, it could soon secure enough fissile material for future development.

Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities are believed to have temporarily hampered progress in Iran’s nuclear program. These air raids targeted enrichment plants and missile facilities, resulting in the deaths of several key nuclear scientists.