Assessing the Impact of Ukraine’s ‘Spiderweb’ Drone Attack on Russia: A Damage Analysis

In the aftermath of Ukraine’s daring drone attack on Russian airfields, both Kyiv and Moscow have engaged in a fierce propaganda battle surrounding the impact of the operation. While Russia insists that none of its aircraft were destroyed, such claims have been widely discredited.

At the same time, questions also loom over Ukraine’s portrayal of its own success in the “Spiderweb” operation. This dynamic reflects a broader narrative war intertwined with actual combat events, as both nations attempt to manipulate the narrative to their advantage.

Using intelligence techniques and satellite imagery from independent sources like Planet Labs and Maxar, NBC News concluded that at least ten Russian planes were destroyed during the attack. NATO corroborated this assessment, stating that approximately 40 aircraft were damaged but only 10 to 13 were completely lost—a figure significantly lower than Ukraine’s claims.

Oliver Alexander, a Danish open-source intelligence analyst, emphasized that NATO’s numbers align with observed evidence from satellite images and videos released by Ukraine’s SBU intelligence service. Further examination of satellite images taken after the attack revealed the destruction of multiple aircraft at various air bases.

At Belaya airfield, several bombers were confirmed lost, while evidence from Olenya air base indicated that at least four additional aircraft suffered damage. Despite Ukraine’s assertions and footage of the attacks, some sites showed no visible signs of destruction, raising questions about the accuracy of their claims.

Regardless of the actual extent of the damage, experts agree that the operation showcased remarkable planning and execution on Ukraine’s part. The SBU noted that 117 small drones were cleverly concealed within trucks and deployed against Russian bases, dramatically impacting Russia’s strategic capability.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy celebrated the mission as a significant achievement, conceivably altering the dynamics of the conflict. Conversely, Russian officials have downplayed the losses, with Deputy Defense Minister Sergei Ryabkov claiming that the planes were merely damaged and could be restored.

The Russian Ministry of Defense dismissed the operation, branding it a “terrorist attack” that had been thwarted. Pro-Kremlin commentators echoed these sentiments, arguing that while significant, the strike lacked lasting military implications.